Can Iraq's government survive?

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• Reuters
• 17/09/2007
  

(Reuters) - The political movement loyal to anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr quit Iraq's ruling Shi'ite Alliance on Saturday, leaving Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's coalition in a weakened position in parliament.

More than a dozen ministers from Maliki's cabinet have also quit this year. Following are some possible scenarios for Maliki and his government.

CAN THE GOVERNMENT SURVIVE?

With the exit of Sadr's bloc from the Shi'ite Alliance, Maliki's government now enjoys the support of only about half of Iraq's 275 lawmakers, although it could survive with the backing of a handful of independent lawmakers.

Some politicians talk about a no-confidence motion against the government, although nothing concrete has happened.

U.S. intelligence agencies last month said the government would become more precarious over the next 6-12 months.

WHAT ABOUT MALIKI?

Opposition Democratic lawmakers in the United States have called for Maliki to be replaced, infuriating the prime minister. He told the McClatchy News Service in an interview late last month he had no intention of quitting nor did he expect to be forced out. Last week he hinted at a long promised overhaul of his cabinet, saying it was time for a "partnership government".

Several Iraqi lawmakers, despite being critical of Maliki, questioned whether removing him made sense.

"The problem is who would replace Maliki. Finding an alternative is more difficult than sacking him," said Hussein al-Falluji, from the main Sunni Arab bloc, the Accordance Front.

"Even the Americans ... don't have any alternatives," said Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman.

WHO COULD REPLACE MALIKI?

Three names have circulated for months: former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, current Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi as well as former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.

Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, is making the most apparent public bid, seeking to drum up support in Iraq and the United States.

Abdul-Mahdi is a senior leader in the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), one of Iraq's biggest Shi'ite parties, and a key member of the ruling alliance. He is seen as a popular choice among some lawmakers.

The other alternative is Jaafari, who like Maliki, comes from the Shi'ite Islamist Dawa party. But Jaafari, whose first term was characterised by inaction, is an unpopular choice for many, including Washington.

WOULD THE U.S. BACK AN ALTERNATIVE?

Washington still sees Maliki as the best man for the job, one senior Western diplomat in Baghdad said last month. The Bush administration did not believe "there is somebody who can do it better", the diplomat said. "Now is not the time for a change in government," he said. In 2006, it took Maliki's government more than four months to form.

WHAT IF THE GOVERNMENT COLLAPSED?

Asked if this would plunge Iraq deeper into crisis, Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, a Kurd, told Reuters last month: "In the absence of a credible alternative, a better alternative, it would be problematic, chaotic. In the context of Iraq, when you talk about problems, you are talking serious problems."

Lawmaker Othman added: "There would be chaos like that which accompanied the fall of Saddam, especially if there were no constitutional alternatives (to Maliki)."