18/09/2007
By Dr Hussein Tahiri
Iran is increasingly challenging the US influence in the Middle East and is aspiring to become a regional superpower. In order to achieve this the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to develop nuclear technology. Although Iran has been insisting that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, the West believes that Iran is planning to develop nuclear weapons. Nuclear Iran would have greater impact on world events as Iran is situated at the centre of one of the most volatile part of the world. Iran can greatly impact economic, social, political and strategic direction of the Middle East. Nuclear weapons with oil resources and a population of over 70 million would develop Iran into a major power. As the major regional power in the Middle East, the Islamic regime of Iran would confidently export its extremist ideology to neighbouring countries and the rest of the world. This would also provoke an armed rivalry in the region. Other neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states would aspire to nuclear weapons for no other fear than to protect their own borders. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already announced that they plan to pursue nuclear energy. In such an event the Middle East would face further crises and any small scale incident could trigger a nuclear war. Nothing could be more lethal than nuclear weapons in a volatile region. Since George W. Bush branded the Islamic Regime of Iran as part of the “axis of evil” there have been growing speculations that the US administration would attempt to change the Iranian regime, even by using force. Iran is of the belief that the United States has been planning a regime overthrow with or without a burgeoning nuclear program. They see developing nuclear weapons as a guarantor to protect the present regime against US aggression. When Saddam Hussein was overthrown it was expected that Iran would be the next in line. However, events in Iraq have not turned out how the US has hoped. Chaos and terrorism dominated Iraq and handicapped the US efforts to establish a democratic and pluralistic Iraq that would be a role model for the rest of the Middle East. Iran sees any success in Iraq by US as possibly leading to its own demise and so far the regime has tried its best to make sure the US is kept unbalanced in Iraq. In this regional power struggle the Islamic Republic of Iran has so far come out victorious. It has prevented the stabilisation of Iraq, putting the US in a very difficult position. It has had great influence in Lebanon through Hizbullah and has been able to appease Arab population by championing the Palestinian cause and threatening to destroy Israel. The regime has also created rifts between the US and its European allies and resistance to the US’s harsh measures against Iran in the UN Security Council over Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, the Islamic Republic of Iran has successfully challenged the US at every front. Iran is becoming a regional superpower, yet the US appears unable to counter Iranian influence. The US does not seem to have many options in dealing with Iran. The UN Security Council, particularly China and Russia, have been opposing economic sanctions against Iran. Given the current involvement of US military forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the vast territory that Iran covers, the US is not in a position to launch a ground attack against Iran to change the regime. A military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and other strategic military sites could inflict some damage but it could give Iran the ammunition and justification to attack US interests in the region and worldwide (including targeting the US military in Iraq and the Gulf) using military forces and its large network of terrorist groups. Dialogue with Iran does not seem to work either. Western European countries have been engaging in “critical dialogue” with Iran for over 27 years. In the past few years they have been in intense negotiation with Iran over its nuclear program. However, this has not come to any fruition as the Iranian regime has continued to follow its own agenda with no regard for international laws and conventions.A regime change in Iran could to be the only solution to end the Iranian nuclear crisis, human rights abuses, dictatorial, theocratic and oppressive rule, and to help establish a democratic, pluralistic and federal Iran for the country to be at peace with itself, with its neighbours and with the international community. A new model for regime changeThe Islamic Republic of Iran is an oppressive regime. It has one of the worst human rights records in the world. For over 27 years it has been oppressing Iranian populations through various means. If an appropriate and inclusive method were to become available, the majority of the Iranian population would support regime change in Iran. Currently, the most appropriate approach seems to be for the international community to support the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime. Of course, this would not be an easy task, as the Iranian opposition groups are not united. Nevertheless, a common ground could be found through dialogue and negotiations. A coalition of the international community could be formed to support and bring together the Iranian opposition to form a united national front. When such a front is formed a “government in exile” with a democratic program could be formed to eventually replace the Islamic regime of Iran. Kurdistan would be the easiest region in Iran to initiate a change of government. The overwhelming majority of the Kurdish population supports regime change and would be ready to support a new democratic force in Iran. The “government in exile” with the assistance of the international community would attempt to create a ‘safe haven zone’ in Iranian Kurdistan. A new unified national army could be formed which could be assisted by the international coalition. Should Iranian Kurdistan be liberated, the “government in exile" would establish a democratic setting, law and order. It will then approach the Iranian population in other parts of Iran. Other Iranians would be invited to join the opposition’s united front and the Iranian army would be encouraged to join the unified national army. The new government in exile would try to gain the trust of the Iranian population and prove itself as an alternative to the hard line Islamic regime. With guarantees from the international community to support Iranian opposition groups, the Iranian population would also increasingly support the new “government in exile”. In the face of an effective opposition the Islamic regime of Iran would finally collapse. Such a model would be beneficial to all sides. It would be an initiative of the Iranian people with the support of the international community. There would be no power vacuum as the new “government in exile” would be ready to move in and take over. Iran would not be occupied by foreign forces consequently creating resistance. And, finally a democratic and pluralistic government in Iran would be formed which will be at peace with its own population, with its neighbours and with the international community. Dr. Hussein Tahiri is the author of "The Structure of Kurdish Society and the Struggle for a Kurdish State". He is a commentator on Middle Eastern affairs. He is currently an Honourary Research Associate with the School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University, Australia.
KurdishMedia.com -
Iran is increasingly challenging the US influence in the Middle East and is aspiring to become a regional superpower. In order to achieve this the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to develop nuclear technology. Although Iran has been insisting that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, the West believes that Iran is planning to develop nuclear weapons. Nuclear Iran would have greater impact on world events as Iran is situated at the centre of one of the most volatile part of the world. Iran can greatly impact economic, social, political and strategic direction of the Middle East. Nuclear weapons with oil resources and a population of over 70 million would develop Iran into a major power. As the major regional power in the Middle East, the Islamic regime of Iran would confidently export its extremist ideology to neighbouring countries and the rest of the world. This would also provoke an armed rivalry in the region. Other neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Gulf states would aspire to nuclear weapons for no other fear than to protect their own borders. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already announced that they plan to pursue nuclear energy. In such an event the Middle East would face further crises and any small scale incident could trigger a nuclear war. Nothing could be more lethal than nuclear weapons in a volatile region. Since George W. Bush branded the Islamic Regime of Iran as part of the “axis of evil” there have been growing speculations that the US administration would attempt to change the Iranian regime, even by using force. Iran is of the belief that the United States has been planning a regime overthrow with or without a burgeoning nuclear program. They see developing nuclear weapons as a guarantor to protect the present regime against US aggression. When Saddam Hussein was overthrown it was expected that Iran would be the next in line. However, events in Iraq have not turned out how the US has hoped. Chaos and terrorism dominated Iraq and handicapped the US efforts to establish a democratic and pluralistic Iraq that would be a role model for the rest of the Middle East. Iran sees any success in Iraq by US as possibly leading to its own demise and so far the regime has tried its best to make sure the US is kept unbalanced in Iraq. In this regional power struggle the Islamic Republic of Iran has so far come out victorious. It has prevented the stabilisation of Iraq, putting the US in a very difficult position. It has had great influence in Lebanon through Hizbullah and has been able to appease Arab population by championing the Palestinian cause and threatening to destroy Israel. The regime has also created rifts between the US and its European allies and resistance to the US’s harsh measures against Iran in the UN Security Council over Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, the Islamic Republic of Iran has successfully challenged the US at every front. Iran is becoming a regional superpower, yet the US appears unable to counter Iranian influence. The US does not seem to have many options in dealing with Iran. The UN Security Council, particularly China and Russia, have been opposing economic sanctions against Iran. Given the current involvement of US military forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the vast territory that Iran covers, the US is not in a position to launch a ground attack against Iran to change the regime. A military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and other strategic military sites could inflict some damage but it could give Iran the ammunition and justification to attack US interests in the region and worldwide (including targeting the US military in Iraq and the Gulf) using military forces and its large network of terrorist groups. Dialogue with Iran does not seem to work either. Western European countries have been engaging in “critical dialogue” with Iran for over 27 years. In the past few years they have been in intense negotiation with Iran over its nuclear program. However, this has not come to any fruition as the Iranian regime has continued to follow its own agenda with no regard for international laws and conventions.A regime change in Iran could to be the only solution to end the Iranian nuclear crisis, human rights abuses, dictatorial, theocratic and oppressive rule, and to help establish a democratic, pluralistic and federal Iran for the country to be at peace with itself, with its neighbours and with the international community. A new model for regime changeThe Islamic Republic of Iran is an oppressive regime. It has one of the worst human rights records in the world. For over 27 years it has been oppressing Iranian populations through various means. If an appropriate and inclusive method were to become available, the majority of the Iranian population would support regime change in Iran. Currently, the most appropriate approach seems to be for the international community to support the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime. Of course, this would not be an easy task, as the Iranian opposition groups are not united. Nevertheless, a common ground could be found through dialogue and negotiations. A coalition of the international community could be formed to support and bring together the Iranian opposition to form a united national front. When such a front is formed a “government in exile” with a democratic program could be formed to eventually replace the Islamic regime of Iran. Kurdistan would be the easiest region in Iran to initiate a change of government. The overwhelming majority of the Kurdish population supports regime change and would be ready to support a new democratic force in Iran. The “government in exile” with the assistance of the international community would attempt to create a ‘safe haven zone’ in Iranian Kurdistan. A new unified national army could be formed which could be assisted by the international coalition. Should Iranian Kurdistan be liberated, the “government in exile" would establish a democratic setting, law and order. It will then approach the Iranian population in other parts of Iran. Other Iranians would be invited to join the opposition’s united front and the Iranian army would be encouraged to join the unified national army. The new government in exile would try to gain the trust of the Iranian population and prove itself as an alternative to the hard line Islamic regime. With guarantees from the international community to support Iranian opposition groups, the Iranian population would also increasingly support the new “government in exile”. In the face of an effective opposition the Islamic regime of Iran would finally collapse. Such a model would be beneficial to all sides. It would be an initiative of the Iranian people with the support of the international community. There would be no power vacuum as the new “government in exile” would be ready to move in and take over. Iran would not be occupied by foreign forces consequently creating resistance. And, finally a democratic and pluralistic government in Iran would be formed which will be at peace with its own population, with its neighbours and with the international community. Dr. Hussein Tahiri is the author of "The Structure of Kurdish Society and the Struggle for a Kurdish State". He is a commentator on Middle Eastern affairs. He is currently an Honourary Research Associate with the School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash University, Australia.
KurdishMedia.com -
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